PREDICTIONS! Election PREDICTIONS! Who Will Win? YOU DECIDE! - The Arthur Martin

Monday, November 5, 2018

PREDICTIONS! Election PREDICTIONS! Who Will Win? YOU DECIDE!


I already predicted [here] that there will NOT be a blue wave and that the Republicans will control both chambers in Congress. I'm going to double down on this;

Just as in 2016, Democrats are more outspoken about how they’re going to vote in the upcoming elections than Republicans and unaffiliated voters are.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 60% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year compared to previous congressional elections. This compares to 49% of Republicans and 40% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.

In August 2016, 52% of Democrats were more likely to let others know how they intended to vote in the upcoming presidential election, compared to 46% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Some analysts before and after Donald Trump's upset victory suggested that most pollsters missed his hidden support among voters fearful of criticism who were unwilling to say where they stood.

Similarly when asked now about family, friends and co-workers, 60% of Democrats say they are also more likely to tell others how they intend to vote, but only 46% of Republicans and 45% of unaffiliated voters agree.

In other words based on the rock-star reception President Trump gets everywhere he goes, the Republicans are going to win just like in 2016 and I hope everyone is ready. This is one of the reasons why you should never take politics PERSONALLY, because if your entire emotional well being is centered on "xyz party is going to win" and you lose...guess what happens to your well being? On a local level things may play out much different and here are my predictions for the state of Alaska:


Congress:


Don Young vs Alyse Galvin

Outcome: Don Young

Governor:

Mike Dunleavy vs Mark Begich

Outcome: Mike Dunleavy

House Representatives District 35


Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs Richard Wein

Outcome: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Proposition 1


Outcome: No. 


The best part of pre-election day is making all sorts of predictions and I am very confident i'm going to be correct this time around as well. I did predict Trump would win in 2016 early on and i'm confident with the outcomes outlined here. 

We will find out soon enough.

In the mean time, make your prediction, who will be the next Governor of Alaska? 




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