Will the Left Accept the Mid-Term Elections When They Lose? - The Arthur Martin

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Will the Left Accept the Mid-Term Elections When They Lose?

Serious Question, Do you remember this Gem:




The exact same pollsters who predicted that the wife of former President Bill Clinton would win the election in 2016, are all AGAIN predicting a massive "Blue Wave." What happens to the Democrats when this doesn't happen? Will they blame the Russian Bots Again? Will they blame the neon-Fascists? Old Hwhite Men? 


In case you aren't paying attention to politics


The Democrats are NOT going to win the Senate. We already know this. Everyone knows this including the Democrats and the media: 

Right now, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a four in five chance of taking back the House. Democrats also have an advantage in generic ballot polling, leading the GOP 50.3 percent to 41.6 percent with less than a month to go before the midterm election, and rating reports like Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have also spent much of the election season predicting a good year for Democratic House candidates.

But the same can’t be said for Democrats in the Senate. In fact, FiveThirtyEight gives the party just a one in five chance of taking back the chamber. There is even a real chance — about 16 percent, the site’s Nate Silver says — that Republicans pick up one seat, and about a 12.5 percent chance they pick up two. [Think Progress]

So, right off the bat we already know there is no blue wave. If you can't win both chambers of Congress there is no wave. Some of you may be surprised to hear this.

However, the House has a better chance right?


The key to voter enthusiasm in this midterm cycle may be the same as it is in real estate: Location, location, location. ABC News’ Rick Klein takes a look at the current generic-ballot polling from the latest Washington Post/ABC partnership and notes that the double-digit Democratic lead would normally spell curtains for the GOP. However, Klein points out that almost all of it comes in districts well in hand for Democrats — and that the battleground looks far different:

If this was a national referendum on President Donald Trump, he’d be set for a thumping, or a shellacking, or whatever word a president not named Trump might select in conceding defeat.

Nationwide, Trump has a 41 percent approval rating, and Democrats have a 53-42 percent edge in the generic ballot for the House. But inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning toward one party or the other — the majority makers, or breakers — that lead evaporates into a 46-47 Democrats v. Republicans race. [...]

It could be even worse than that from the Democratic perspective. The WaPo/ABC generic ballot result is on the outer edge of the aggregation at RCP, where Democrats have a 7.3-point lead. It’s probably too much to call it an outlier, as Reuters and CNN both give Democrats similar leads, but most other recent polls put the difference in single digits. Rasmussen calls it a solid tie and IBD/TIPP has it at D+2, but most of the polls are in the D+6 -to- D+8 range. [Source]

If you enjoy Politics you can take a stab and bet on who you think will win in the mid-terms. A website called [predictit.org] does political betting. Warning: if you are too emotionally invested in politics, you probably shouldn't bet cause it could be a double-whammy to your soul and pocket book if you lose.

As it stands, there will be no blue wave and the Republicans will control both chambers in Congress.

Do you disagree?

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